Long-Term Projections of the Natural Expansion of the Pine Wood Nematode in the Iberian Peninsula

被引:15
|
作者
de la Fuente, Begona [1 ]
Saura, Santiago [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Politecn Madrid, MONTES ETSI Montes Forestal & Medio Nat, Ciudad Univ S-N, Madrid 28040, Spain
来源
FORESTS | 2021年 / 12卷 / 07期
关键词
pine wood nematode; pine wilt disease; forest pests; Iberian Peninsula; invasive alien species; MONOCHAMUS-GALLOPROVINCIALIS COL; BURSAPHELENCHUS-XYLOPHILUS; WILT DISEASE; ECONOMIC COSTS; 1ST REPORT; SUSCEPTIBILITY; CERAMBYCIDAE; VECTOR; SPREAD;
D O I
10.3390/f12070849
中图分类号
S7 [林业];
学科分类号
0829 ; 0907 ;
摘要
The invasive pine wood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, causal agent of pine wilt disease, was first reported in Europe, near Lisbon, in 1999, and has since then spread to most of Portugal. We here modelled the spatiotemporal patterns of future PNW natural spread in the Iberian Peninsula, as dispersed by the vector beetle Monochamus galloprovincialis, using a process-based and previously validated network model. We improved the accuracy, informative content, forecasted period and spatial drivers considered in previous modelling efforts for the PWN in Southern Europe. We considered the distribution and different susceptibility to the PWN of individual pine tree species and the effect of climate change projections on environmental suitability for PWN spread, as we modelled the PWN expansion dynamics over the long term (>100 years). We found that, in the absence of effective containment measures, the PWN will spread naturally to the entire Iberian Peninsula, including the Pyrenees, where it would find a gateway for spread into France. The PWN spread will be relatively gradual, with an average rate of 0.83% of the total current Iberian pine forest area infected yearly. Climate was not found to be an important limiting factor for long-term PWN spread, because (i) there is ample availability of alternative pathways for PWN dispersal through areas that are already suitable for the PWN in the current climatic conditions; and (ii) future temperatures will make most of the Iberian Peninsula suitable for the PWN before the end of this century. Unlike climate, the susceptibility of different pine tree species to the PWN was a strong determinant of PWN expansion through Spain. This finding highlights the importance of accounting for individual tree species data and of additional research on species-specific susceptibility for more accurate modelling of PWN spread and guidance of related containment efforts.
引用
收藏
页数:14
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] DETECTING LONG-TERM VARIATIONS IN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN IBERIAN PENINSULA
    VALERO, F
    GARCIAMIGUEL, JA
    MARTIN, ML
    LUNA, Y
    ANNALES GEOPHYSICAE-ATMOSPHERES HYDROSPHERES AND SPACE SCIENCES, 1993, 11 (09): : 837 - 845
  • [2] Long-term monitoring of the Iberian ibex population in the Sierra Nevada of the southeast Iberian Peninsula
    Granados, Jose Enrique
    Ros-Candeira, Andrea
    Perez-Luque, Antonio Jesus
    Moreno-Llorca, Ricardo
    Cano-Manuel, Francisco Javier
    Fandos, Paulino
    Soriguer, Ramon C.
    Cerrato, Jose Espinosa
    Jimenez, Jesus Maria Perez
    Ramos, Blanca
    Zamora, Regino
    SCIENTIFIC DATA, 2020, 7 (01)
  • [3] Long-term monitoring of the Iberian ibex population in the Sierra Nevada of the southeast Iberian Peninsula
    José Enrique Granados
    Andrea Ros-Candeira
    Antonio Jesús Pérez-Luque
    Ricardo Moreno-Llorca
    Francisco Javier Cano-Manuel
    Paulino Fandos
    Ramón C. Soriguer
    José Espinosa Cerrato
    Jesús María Pérez Jiménez
    Blanca Ramos
    Regino Zamora
    Scientific Data, 7
  • [4] Climate change and bird phenology: a long-term study in the Iberian Peninsula
    Gordo, Oscar
    Sanz, Juan Jose
    GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2006, 12 (10) : 1993 - 2004
  • [5] Quercus long-term pollen season trends in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula
    Fernandez-Rodriguez, Santiago
    Duran-Barroso, Pablo
    Silva-Palacios, Inmaculada
    Tormo-Molina, Rafael
    Maria Maya-Manzano, Jose
    Gonzalo-Garijo, Angela
    PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, 2016, 101 : 152 - 159
  • [6] SPECIAL ISSUE - LONG-TERM STUDIES OF FRESHWATERS IN THE IBERIAN PENINSULA: A PREFACE
    不详
    LIMNETICA, 2021, 40 (01): : III - IV
  • [7] Long-term forest management after wildfire (Catalonia, NE Iberian Peninsula)
    Marcos Francos
    Xavier Úbeda
    Paulo Pereira
    Journal of Forestry Research, 2020, 31 : 269 - 278
  • [8] Long-term forest management after wildfire(Catalonia,NE Iberian Peninsula)
    Marcos Francos
    Xavier úbeda
    Paulo Pereira
    JournalofForestryResearch, 2020, 31 (01) : 269 - 278
  • [9] Long-term forest management after wildfire (Catalonia, NE Iberian Peninsula)
    Francos, Marcos
    Ubeda, Xavier
    Pereira, Paulo
    JOURNAL OF FORESTRY RESEARCH, 2020, 31 (01) : 269 - 278
  • [10] Long-term monitoring of the fish community in the Minho Estuary (NW Iberian Peninsula)
    Souza, Allan T.
    Ilarri, Martina I.
    Dias, Ester
    Araujo, Mario J.
    Roleira, Antonio
    Braga, Ana Catarina
    Carvalho, Ana Rita
    Mota, Micaela
    Correia, Maria Helena
    Lages, Ana
    Moura, Ana
    Antunes, Carlos
    BIODIVERSITY DATA JOURNAL, 2024, 12