[1] Univ Kent, Dept Econ, Canterbury CT2 7NZ, Kent, England
[2] Univ Cambridge, Ctr Int Macroecon & Finance, Cambridge CB2 1TN, England
[3] Univ St Andrews, Dept Econ, St Andrews KY16 9AJ, Fife, Scotland
[4] Univ St Andrews, Ctr Dynam Macroecon Anal, St Andrews KY16 9AJ, Fife, Scotland