What lessons does the Antarctic Treaty System offer for the future of peaceful relations in the South China Sea?

Tensions in the South China Sea are typically analysed either from a power perspective, which emphasises the ambitions of a rising China and the potential for conflict; or from an international law perspective, which typically assesses the scope for resolution of competing claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the impact of the South China Sea arbitration. There have also been efforts to analyse the potential for creative legal solutions, including consideration of the Antarctic Treaty System as a potential model. This paper revisits the Antarctic analogy. Rather than view this from a law or politics perspective, the paper suggests that viewing Antarctic Treaty provisions as having been championed by a rising power whose interests were not closely supported by application of the existing legal regime yields rather different lessons and offers cautious grounds for optimism.