Food security and world trade prospects

Food security depends on available world supplies of food, the income of the designated population, and the population's access to the available supplies. Consequently, though seldom recognized in national food security policies, there is a direct relationship between food security, world trade in food, and the domestic policies that govern access to international markets for food. On all three scores, I believe we can be optimistic about improvements in world food security over the next quarter century. Over the next quarter century, the world's supply of food will grow somewhat more rapidly than will the demand for it, leading to lower real prices of food. Thus, the trend of food prices, as measured by grain prices, is likely to continue the trend of the current century, though at a slower rate of decline. The remarkable reduction in the international price of grain that has occurred in this century is given all too little emphasis in discussions of the world food situation, certainly so in the discussions of the food pessimists. I am confident that the real per capita incomes of the majority of the population in the developing countries will continue to increase, contributing to an improvement in food security. Finally, I believe that, with the changes in agricultural policies in the major industrial countries, world trade in farm products, especially grains, will be further liberalized in the future. In addition, more and more developing countries are reducing barriers to trade, thus increasing access to world food supplies. Thus, all the broad trends point to an improvement in world food security and a reduction in the number of persons adversely affected by both long-term or short-term inadequate access to food.