AN AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL TO ESTIMATE THE IMPACTS OF PRICE SHOCKS ON FEED PRICES

被引：0
|
作者：
Niemi, Jarkko K. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Econ & Soc, Kampusranta 9, FI-60320 Seinajoki, Finland
来源：
Nordic View to Sustainable Rural Development | 2015年
关键词：
Price volatility; feed; pigs; poultry; autoregressive model;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
S [农业科学];
学科分类号：
09 ;
摘要：
The volatility of agricultural commodity market has increased in the recent years. The goal of this paperwas to estimate how changes in the prices of protein-rich and energy-rich crops impact pig and poultry feed prices. A first-differenced AR1 model to explain monthly changes in pig and poultry feed prices with current and past changes in soybean mean, wheat and rapeseed prices was estimated. The results suggest that wheat prices observed 3-6 months earlier impact the feed prices. Changes in cereal, soybean meal and rapeseed prices are transmitted to pig and poultry feed prices with a delay of 2 to 6 months. Moreover, changes in cereal prices have a larger impact on feed prices than changes in soybean meal prices. The results suggest that it is more efficient to be prepared for feed price risks than to price risks of associated with individual components (such as cereals) used as to manufacture feeds.
引用
收藏
页码：457 / 461
页数：5
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