First-Year Progression and Retention of Autistic Students in Higher Education: A Propensity Score-Weighted Population Study

Background: Autistic individuals' enrollment in universities is increasing, but we know little about their study progress over time. Many of them have poor degree completion in comparison to students with other disabilities. However, longitudinal studies on study progression over time of autistic students (AS) in comparison to their peers are absent. It is essential to study AS outcomes during the first year, controlling against the results of students without disabilities. Methods: This preregistered population study examined first-year progression and retention within the same area of study of autistic bachelor students (n=96; age M=20.0 years, 95% confidence interval [CI] 18.0-21.0) in comparison to students without disabilities (n=25,001; age M=19.0 years, 95% CI 18.0-20.0), enrolled in the same area of study at a major Dutch university. To control for substantial differences in sample sizes and differences in demographics or prior education, we applied propensity score weighting to balance outcomes. We analyzed progression and retention, examining the average grades, the number of examinations, resits, no shows, the credit accumulation in each period, and the average retention after the first year. Results: Over the course of the first bachelor year, AS received grades similar to students with no disabilities. We found no statistical differences in the number of examinations, resits, and no shows. Credit accumulation was generally similar during the academic year except for one of seven periods, and retention within the same area of study revealed no differences. Conclusions: This study shows that AS have similar success rates compared with students with no disabilities but could benefit from additional support on test-taking. Improved insights can enable universities to develop appropriate and timely support for often-talented students, improve first-year retention, and advance degree completion.