Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic

被引:23
|
作者
Peto, Julian [1 ]
Carpenter, James [1 ]
Smith, George Davey [2 ]
Duffy, Stephen [3 ]
Houlston, Richard [4 ]
Hunter, David J. [5 ]
McPherson, Klim [6 ]
Pearce, Neil [1 ]
Romer, Paul [7 ]
Sasieni, Peter [8 ]
Turnbull, Clare [4 ]
机构
[1] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Fac Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London, England
[2] Univ Bristol, Bristol Populat Hlth Sci Inst, Bristol, Avon, England
[3] Queen Mary Univ London, Wolfson Inst Prevent Med, London, England
[4] Inst Canc Res, Div Genet & Epidemiol, London, England
[5] Univ Oxford, Nuffield Dept Populat Hlth, Oxford, England
[6] Univ Oxford, New Coll, Oxford, England
[7] NYU, Stern Sch Business, New York, NY USA
[8] Kings Coll London, Sch Canc & Pharmaceut Sci, London, England
来源
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE | 2020年 / 7卷 / 06期
基金
英国医学研究理事会;
关键词
COVID-19; quarantine; screening;
D O I
10.1098/rsos.200915
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The COVID-19 epidemic can probably be ended and normal life restored, perhaps quite quickly, by weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing together with household quarantine and systematic contact tracing. Isolated outbreaks could then be contained by contact tracing, supplemented if necessary by temporary local reintroduction of population testing or lockdown. Leading public health experts have recommended that this should be tried in a demonstration project in which a medium-sized city introduces weekly testing and lifts lockdown completely. The idea was not considered by the groups whose predictions have guided UK policy, so we have examined the statistical case for such a study. The combination of regular testing with strict household quarantine, which was not analysed in their models, has remarkable power to reduce transmission to the community from other household members as well as providing earlier diagnosis and facilitating rapid contact tracing.
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页数:4
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