Energy Consumption Combination Forecast of Hebei Province Based on the IOWA Operator

Energy is the essential material for human survival, and it is the important resource for economic development and social progress. Making a reasonable and reliable development plan by forecasting the energy consumption scientifically and effectively can ensure economic healthily and orderly developing. The combination forecast method based on inducted ordered weighted average operator is used widely in these years. The difference between this model and the traditional combination forecast method is that the empowerment coefficient of the combination forecast has nothing to do with the monomial prediction model, but it is closely related to forecast precision's size of the monomial prediction model at each time-point, it is an invariable empowerment method. In this paper we adopt the time series tendency forecast model and the gray system GM (1, 1) forecast model in order to analysis the energy consumption of the Hebei Province; then, it introduces the energy consumption combination forecast model based on the IOWA operator. Empirical analysis indicates that this model can enhance the forecast precision of the combination and it is an effective combination forecast method. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of RIUDS