Oil refinery planning multi-projects under uncertainty

This article proposed multi-project thinking for planning of production of oil products, allowing one to take into account both complication of such projects and influence of uncertainty during their realization. The scenario planning and a model of choice under uncertainty are used. A procedure of payoff matrix formation is described concerning planning and making decision on the multi-projects of oil and gas industry. As alternatives, the scenarios of multi-project realization are examined with the different oil product portfolio. Every multi-project scenario is formed only on the basis of technological connections. In the long term, it is possible to form the scenarios with the opportunity to take into account the start of each individual project depending on investment possibilities and market situation. As uncertain outcomes, the provision of a multi-project with oil resources is considered based on the projected rate of oil production at the well or field. It allows taking into account the uncertainty related to exhaustibility of the natural resource used. As elements of a payoff matrix in the article, it is suggested to use indexes of commercial efficiency of investments. The questions of determining the dimension of the matrix and the selection of the planning horizon are discussed. The results of application of the proposed approach to the multi-project of oil processing developed for the geological and economic conditions of the Orenburg region of the Russian Federation are described. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been created. They are useful for determining the desired plans for the implementation of the project, the capital intensity of the created production and the risk of changes in the volume of oil production within the examined planning horizon.