Future high- and low-flow estimations for Central Vietnam: a hydro-meteorological modelling chain approach

被引：10

作者：

Quang Thinh Dang ^{[1
]}

Laux, Patrick ^{[1
]}

Kunstmann, Harald ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Inst Meteorol & Climate Res KIT IMK IFU, Dept Atmospher Environm Res, Garmis Ch Partenkirchen, Germany

[2] Univ Augsburg, Inst Geog, Augsburg, Germany

来源：

HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES | 2017年 / 62卷 / 11期

关键词：

hydrological modelling chain; bias correction; delta change; WaSiM; discharge extremes; Vietnam; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL; CHANGE IMPACT; BIAS-CORRECTION; HYDROLOGICAL EXTREMES; QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY; RIVER DISCHARGE; SIMULATIONS; PRECIPITATION; RAINFALL; BASINS;

D O I：

10.1080/02626667.2017.1353696

中图分类号：

TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];

学科分类号：

081501 ;

摘要：

We apply a complex hydro-meteorological modelling chain for investigating the impact of climate change on future hydrological extremes in Central Vietnam, a region characterized by limited data availability. The modelling chain consists of six General Circulation Models (GCMs), six Regional Climate Models (RCMs), six bias correction (BC) approaches, the fully distributed Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM), and extreme values analysis. Bias corrected and raw climate data are used as input for WaSiM. To derive hydrological extremes, the generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to the annual maxima/minima discharge. We identify limitations according to the fitting procedure and the BC methods, and suggest the usage of the delta change approach for hydrological decision support. Tendencies towards increased high- and decreased low flows are concluded. Our study stresses the challenges in using current GCMs/RCMs in combination with state-of-the-art BC methods and extreme value statistics for local impact studies.

引用

页码：1867 / 1889

页数：23