Electrifying Space Heating in Existing Commercial Buildings: Opportunities and Challenges

Building electrification, or the replacement of fossil fuel heating with electric technologies, is increasingly seen as a key solution to help reduce emissions greenhouse gas emissions when combined with a steady shift toward low-carbon electric generation. Although a handful of studies have quantified the costs and benefits of electrifying the residential sector, relatively few studies have been conducted on the commercial building sector. This paper attempts to answer initial questions about the electrification of existing commercial buildings, primarily by quantifying energy, emissions, and economic impacts, but also in identifying barriers and strategies for commercial building electrification. Results show buildings with medium-to-high occupancy in warmer U.S. regions to be the most economically favorable for commercial building electrification. Of the buildings studied, this analysis found that commercial building electrification could reduce energy consumption by 37% and emissions by 44%. However, the study found that simple payback periods are often long for installing heat pumps at the time existing systems need replacement and therefore commercial building electrification will likely proceed slowly without additional policy support.