Real-time hydro-power forecasting on the Victoria Nile

This paper describes the potential use of a genetic algorithm for real-time regulation of Lake Victoria at Owen Falls dam. The objective was to develop a procedure that would permit short- to medium-term forecasts of potential reliable power generation that would improve utilisation of high lake levels. An operational control procedure has been developed, based on a genetic algorithm, that permits forecasts to be made of potential reliable power output at Owen Falls and any future hydropower stations on the Victoria Nile, at lead times of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. Such forecasts could be of value in planning outage of thermal power plants and in maximising power benefits associated with high lake levels. With regulation, the reliable power output from Lake Victoria and the Victoria Nile can be significantly improved. Impacts downstream of Lake Kyoga would not be significant.