Changes in Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions of the Agricultural Sector in Poland from 2000 to 2019

This paper analyzes the changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions related to energy consumption in the Polish agricultural sector between 2000 and 2019. Based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), the changes in agricultural CO2 emissions are viewed in the context of changes in six factors, i.e., CO2 emission intensity, substitution of fossil fuels, penetration of renewable energies, energy intensity, labor productivity and number of employees. The analysis demonstrated that total energy consumption declined over the study period; this was related to a reduction in the intake of energy derived from solid fossil fuels (-1.05%), crude oil (-1.01%), electricity (-4.89%), and heat (-1.37%), and to an increased consumption of natural gas (5.78%) and biofuels (0.82%). Furthermore, it follows from the analysis that changes in CO2 emissions witnessed in that period were consistent with changes in energy consumption levels; this resulted from a negligible transformation of the energy mix (largely determined by fossil fuels). Generally, CO2 emissions declined over the study period at a rate comparable (-0.9%) to that of the reduction in energy consumption (-1.03%). In light of the LMDI method, the reduction in CO2 emissions from fuel consumption in the Polish agricultural sector was mainly driven by a reduction in energy intensity and in employment. Conversely, rapid growth in labor productivity was the key factor in increasing carbon dioxide emissions. Compared to these impacts, changes in other factors (i.e., emission intensity, energy mix and penetration of renewable energies) had an extremely small or marginal effect on the variation in CO2 emissions.