Early and late recurrences in lymph node-negative gastric cancer: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Predictors of recurrence in patients with lymph node-negative gastric cancer (GC) who have undergone curative resection have been widely investigated, but not the effects of predictors on timing of recurrence. OBJECTIVE: Determine the factors associated with early and late recurrence in patients with node-negative GC. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort. SETTING: Academic tertiary care center. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The study included patients with node-negative GC after curative resection between 2008 and 2018 at two institutions. Early and late recurrences were determined using a minimum P value approach to evaluate the optimal cutoff for recurrence-free survival (RFS). A competing risk model and landmark analysis were used to analyze factors associated with early and late recurrences. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Recurrence-free survival and factors associated with survival. SAMPLE SIZE: 606. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 70 months, 50 (8.3%) patients experienced recurrent disease. The optimal length of RFS for distinguishing between early (n=26) and late recurrence (n=24) was 24 months (P=.0013). The median RFS in the early and late recurrence groups was 11 and 32 months, respectively. Diffuse tumors (hazard ratio 3.358, P=.014), advanced T stage (HR 8.804, P=.003), perineural invasion (HR 10.955, P<.001), and anemia (HR 2.351, P=.018) were independent predictors of early recurrence. Mixed tumor location (HR 5.586, P=.002), advanced T stage (HR 5.066, P<.001), lymphovascular invasion (HR 5.902, P<.001), and elevated CA19-9 levels (HR 5.227, P<.001) were independent predictors of late recurrence. Similar results were obtained in the landmark analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Individualized therapeutic and follow-up strategies should be considered in future studies because of distinct patterns in predictors of early and late recurrence. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective design, small sample size.