Risk factors for depression during the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal study in middle-aged and older adults

Background The COVID-19 pandemic and resultant social restrictions have had widespread psychological ramifications, including a rise in depression prevalence. However, longitudinal studies on sociodemographic risk factors are lacking. Aims To quantify longitudinal changes in depression symptoms during the pandemic compared with a pre-pandemic baseline, in middle-aged and older adults, and identify the risk factors contributing to this. Method A total of 5331 participants aged >= 50 years were drawn from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Self-reported depression symptoms in June/July 2020 were compared with baseline data from 2-3 years prior. Regression models investigated sociodemographic and lifestyle variables that could explain variance in change in depression. Results Within-participant depression scores increased significantly from pre-pandemic levels: 14% met the criteria for clinical depression at baseline, compared with 26% during the pandemic. Younger age, female gender, higher depression scores at baseline, living alone and having a long-standing illness were significant risk factors. Gender-stratified regression models indicated that older age was protective for women only, whereas urban living increased risk among women only. Being an alcohol consumer was a protective factor among men only. Conclusions Depression in UK adults aged >= 50 years increased significantly during the pandemic. Being female, living alone and having a long-standing illness were prominent risk factors. Younger women living in urban areas were at particularly high risk, suggesting such individuals should be prioritised for support. Findings are also informative for future risk stratification and intervention strategies, particularly if social restrictions are reimposed as the COVID-19 crisis continues to unfold.