Economical Optimal Operation of Multi-energy System Considering Uncertainty

Considering the influence on operation of multi energy system from the uncertainty of source-load and analyzing the randomness and fuzziness of renewable energy and loads of cooling, heating and power. The distribution of renewable energy and loads of cooling, heating and power is built through 2-stage Fourier fitting. Then, fuzzing the fitting parameters distribution in order to get build the random-fuzzy model. According to the definition of expectation, optimistic value, and pessimistic value, the expectation and fluctuation limit based on confidence level is calculated in order to verify the efficiency of model. Through the particle swarm optimization, the scheduling result of CCHP system based on economic is calculated. And the influence of optimization result from uncertainty is analyzed. The result confirms that the random-fuzzy model is efficient and particle.