Effects of sea level rise on economic development and regional disparity in China

Among the climate change-induced threats to coastal regions, sea level rise is considered as the most serious one. Most large and prosperous cities in China are located along coastal regions and are thus likely to suffer huge economic impacts when a sea level rise occurs. The effects on coastal regions can also be transmitted to inland regions through movement of labor and trade, thus affecting regional disparity. To strengthen evidence-based policies of abatement and adaptation, it is essential to assess the economic impacts of sea level rise in addition to the physical impacts already investigated in the literature. Based on data from GIS analysis of flooded areas, this study uses a state-of-the-art technique (TERM-China, a multiregional general equilibrium model of China) to evaluate the economic impacts of sea level rise. The simulation results suggest that if the sea level rise coincides with sudden-onset extreme storm surges, the coastal regions' GDP loss would reach 11% in 2050, wherein Tianjin, Shanghai, and Jiangsu would have the most severe losses with over a 20% decline in their individual GDP in 2050. At the sectoral level, high capital-intensive sectors have more significant output losses. Our results also indicate that sea level rise could cause more unemployment in developed coastal regions, drive people to other developing inland regions, and even convert some mega-cities into middle-scale cities. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.