Demographic change in the former Soviet Union during the transition period

This paper examines patterns of mortality and other demographic changes across the former Soviet Union. Using regional data from the early 1990s, a simultaneous equations model of fertility, marriage, divorce, infant mortality and abortion is estimated as a function of economic and social variables. The paper then looks at determinants of life expectancy and specific causes of death. Demographic scenarios are then forecast on the basis of specific economic environments; these forecasts in turn are used to forecast life expectancies in the coming decades. In plausible environments, there is little reason to anticipate a rapid recovery in male or female life expectancies, while further declines in fertility appear imminent. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.