Paleoanalogues of Global Warming in the 21st Century

On the basis of landscape-climatic reconstructions for warming periods in the past, likely scenarios of future global warming have been developed for various warming levels that might be reached during the current century. The paleoanalogue of global warming by 0.7-1 degrees C is the Holocene climatic optimum (5.5-6 ka B.P.) and that by 1.7-2 degrees C is the last interglacial optimum (about 125 ka B.P.). The complex analysis concerning response of the principal ecosystem components to the expected warming signifies that there will not be any shifts of vegetation zones during the 21st century; reconstruction will touch only the internal structure of vegetable associations and broadening of interzonal ecotones.