Technology Adoption under Uncertainty: Take-Up and Subsequent Investment in Zambia

被引：19

作者：

Oliva, Paulina ^{[1
]}

Jack, B. Kelsey ^{[2
,3
]}

Bell, Samuel ^{[4
]}

Mettetal, Elizabeth ^{[5
]}

Severen, Christopher ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Southern Calif, Los Angeles, CA 90007 USA

[2] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

[3] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[4] Oregon State Univ, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA

[5] Abt Associates Inc, Cambridge, MA USA

[6] Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA USA

来源：

REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS | 2020年 / 102卷 / 03期

关键词：

RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED-TRIAL; INFORMATION; SUBSIDIES; SELECTION;

D O I：

10.1162/rest_a_00823

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Technology adoption often requires multiple stages of investment. As new information emerges, agents may abandon a technology that was profitable in expectation. We use a field experiment to vary the payoffs at two stages of investment in a new technology: a tree species that provides on-farm fertilizer benefits. Farmer decisions identify the information about profitability that arrives between the take-up and follow-through stages. Results show that this form of uncertainty increases take-up but lowers average tree survival, decreasing the cost-effectiveness of take-up subsidies. Thus, uncertainty offers another explanation for why even costly technologies may go unused or be abandoned.

引用

页码：617 / 632

页数：16

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