Risk Analysis of Biofuels Industry for Aviation with Scenario-Based Expert Elicitation

The aviation sector relies almost exclusively on petroleum-derived fuels at the present time. Due to concerns including national security, long-term availability of crude oil feedstock, and environmental impacts, there is an increasing interest in identifying alternatives to conventional jet fuel. Viable alternatives must meet a number of criteria, related to quality and quantity of supply, cost-competitiveness, and environmental sustainability. Priorities for diverse industry initiatives for the development of a biojet fuel industry are influenced by uncertainties including environmental regulation, market prices of crude oil and refinery products, and competition from other industries. This work uses scenario-based preferences to elicit and inform decision makers on the combinations of emergent and future conditions that are most impactful to the priorities for the industry. The analysis also reveals which initiatives are robust to evolving political, economic, and technological conditions, thus supporting decision-making relevant to establishing a secure supply of biojet fuel. The method and its results are helpful to the generation of systems engineering requirements recognizing key sources of risk for an emerging industry. (C) 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.