Business cycle turning points based on DEA-discriminant analysis

Recently, the turning points of business cycle are decided with wide viewpoints after passing a couple of years from the points. This study tries to develop a model for judging the turning points in real-time by using a non-parametric approach, DEA-discriminant analysis, because we have sometimes faced sudden changes of economy and non-parametric approaches are useful for covering these movements. The constructed model succeeds to separate periods in Japanese economic expanding and recession terms, and the model would be helpful for the real-time judgments of the turning points of business cycle.