Participation in further education in England and Wales: an analysis of post-war trends

The paper examines the time-series evidence relating to participation rates in further education in England and Wales and, using cointegration analysis, identifies a long-run statistical relationship in the data consistent with an augmented human-capital model. The recent rapid growth of participation is largely attributable to the improvements in GCSE attainment, coupled with the expansion of higher education, of the last decade. Fluctuations in labour demand play a significant role in determining the movements of participation rates over time, and the substantial rise in youth unemployment of the early 1990s contributed to the growth in participation at this time.