Power Network Reliability Framework for Integrating Cable Design and Ageing

Utilities are challenged to develop economically competitive plans for expanding power transfer capabilities and increasing network resilience under uncertainties. To overcome these challenges, utilities frequently operate their underground cable systems with flexible ratings under planned or emergency network contingencies. At present, the increased risk associated with such an emergency loading operation of cables and networks is not quantified. To address this gap, the paper presents a novel advancement in existing methodology for evaluating power network reliability, which accounts for the increased risk of failures and ageing that underground cables experience during emergencies. The proposed framework integrates a double sequential Monte Carlo simulation loop with a detailed cable system model incorporating important plant design properties. This integration captures the risk of cable ageing at emergency events within a multiyear network analysis. The methodology is demonstrated on the modified IEEE 14-bus network with long- and short-term emergency ratings under both steady-state and transient electro-thermal implementations. Crucially, the methodology can inform utilities about the emergency loading risks for network performance, including adequacy, resiliency, flexibility, and cable ageing.