The impacts of a reduction in British meat and dairy consumption on Northern Ireland's agri-food sector

In 2020, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) recommended that British consumers reduce their beef, lamb and dairy consumption by 20% for both environmental and health reasons. For a region like Northern Ireland, this presents a significant challenge. Northern Ireland, considered to be performing poorly local economy within the United Kingdom and Ireland, has an export-orientated agri-food sector with an extensive domestic supply chain. This study shows the likely trade-offs required for a small regional economy with a large, established cattle herd to sustainably transition from one agri-food system to another. In so doing, the study uses the most comprehensive agricultural data collections to rebalance Northern Irish input-output tables, to better account for the nature of NI intermediate consumption within an agri-food system. The results show that a large-scale transition from beef, lamb and dairy to fruit and vegetable production would create a more emission efficient agricultural sector. The worst economic effects could be offset within current NI policy parameters, although there would still likely be some economic costs.