Analytical tools for the management of faster-better-cheaper space missions

The faster-better-cheaper (FBC) mode of operation of NASA's unmanned space program requires explicit management of tradeoffs between risks, costs and schedule. In this paper, we examine some long-term issues that will arise as FBC becomes the standard for all types of space missions, including those that involve technological research and development. Addressing these issues in a systematic way requires the use of quantitative analytical tools that include risk analysis, decision analysis, value of information, optimization, and warning systems models. These tools allow setting priorities, quantifying tradeoffs and optimizing the allocation of resources to reach the minimum risk. They also allow estimating how close to the limit of tolerable risk the constraints put a specific project. If needed, this information permits readjusting the constraints or the mission scope. Changes in mission scope, however, may affect other missions. The tools of programmatic risk analysis allow estimating the effect of the management of one project on the success of related missions of the program. Our conclusions and recommendations for managing future NASA projects are preliminary, but it seems clear that the rules may have to be adapted to the nature of the projects, and that probabilistic risk analysis can be a valuable tool in this new approach.