A new piecewise fuzzy exponential smoothing model based on some change-points

In our previous studies we proposed the fuzzy exponential smoothing model for extrapolation under a vague system with limited data. However, some change-points in the collected data always generate to enlarge a forecasting interval which provides the decision maker with little information to make some decisions. Therefore, in this study we defined the change-points and the piece forecasting intervals for deriving the piecewise fuzzy exponential smoothing interval, and we can effectively determine the future trends for decision. Finally, an illustrated example has been used to verify the effectiveness and confirm the potential benefits of the proposed model with a smaller and piecewise forecasting interval. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.