Soluble ST2 in serum predicts the prognosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a retrospective study

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a heterogeneous and progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease with a poor prognosis. However, there are currently no effective biomarker that can reliably predict the prognosis for IPF in clinic. The serum level of soluble suppression of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2), which is involved in the immune response, has proven to be a prognostic predictor for various diseases. Previous studies have confirmed that the immune dysfunction plays an important role in the pathogenesis of IPF and the serum sST2 concentrations in patients with IPF are elevated. However, the relationship between sST2 and the prognosis of IPF remains unknown. Methods: A total of 83 patients with IPF and 20 healthy controls from 2016 to 2021 were enrolled and demographic variables, indices of lung function testing as well as the biomarkers including the sST2 were obtained at baseline. During follow-up, the primary endpoint was defined as all-cause death and clinical deterioration. Cox hazard models and Kaplan-Meier method were used to assess the prognostic value of various indices including sST2. Results: Mean duration of follow-up was 29 months, during which 49 patients had an event, and of them, 35 patients died. The sST2 level was higher in the IPF patients compared with the healthy controls. Although the sST2 level did not directly predict all-cause death in the present study, it was proved to be an independent predictor of event-free survival. Multivariate forward stepwise model which was adjusted by age, sex, and body surface area (BSA) showed that the overexpression of sST2 increased the hazard ratio [1.005, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.001-1.010]. A higher sST2 serum level heralded more deterioration and the poor outcomes. Moreover, the effect of sST2 on the prognosis of IPF may not necessarily involve the development of IPF-related pulmonary hypertension (PH). Conclusions: In our study, the sST2 serum level was significantly elevated and a higher serum level of sST2 predicted more deterioration and poor outcomes in patients with IPF. Thus, sST2 can serve as a valuable prognostic biomarker for the outcome of IPF. However, further multicenter clinical trials of larger sample size are needed in the future.