Predictors of Academic Performance and Attrition in a Music Bachelor's Degree in Mexico

Educational outcomes and school dropout rates are influential in the designing of higher education policies in Mexico. University entrance tests are one of the multiple coordinated strategies of such policies. Well design tests should contribute to reduce dropout rates and poor academic outcomes. The present study explores the predictive power of three variables that constitute the entrance examination process to the music programme at the University of Aguascalientes: high school grades; the general test EXANI II to get access to higher education; and the special entrance test. Using correlation analysis and linear regression, it was concluded that the average of high school grades is the variable that best predicts overall achievement; the special entrance test mainly explains the performance in the first semesters; and the language dimension of EXANI II mainly explains the performance of contextual courses such as culture and music history. The interpretation of these results must take into account that university academic performance is a multicausal phenomenon and that university music programmes no longer pursue the traditional training in the craft of performance and composition but the education of professionals with an academic, versatile profile.