Description and prediction of Slashdot activity

被引：31
作者：
Kaltenbrunner, Andreas [1 ]
Gomez, Vicenc [1 ]
Lopez, Vicente [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Pompeu Fabra, Dept Tecnol, Barcelona 08003, Spain
来源：
LA-WEB 2007: 5TH LATIN AMERICAN WEB CONGRESS, PROCEEDINGS | 2007年
关键词：
D O I：
10.1109/LA-Web.2007.21
中图分类号：
TP3 [计算技术、计算机技术];
学科分类号：
0812 ;
摘要：
We perform a statistical analysis of user's reaction time to a new discussion thread in online debates on the popular news site Slashdot. First, we show with Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests that a mixture of two log-normal distributions combined with the circadian rhythm of the community is able to explain with surprising accuracy the reaction time of comments within a discussion thread. Second, this characterization allows to predict intermediate and long-term user behavior with acceptable precision. The prediction method is based on activity-prototypes, which consist of a mixture of two log-normal distributions, and represent the average activity in a particular region of the circadian cycle.
引用
收藏
页码：57 / 66
页数：10
相关论文
共 30 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], 2002, Probability and Statistics
[2]  
Aussem A, 2001, INT J INTELL SYST, V16, P215, DOI 10.1002/1098-111X(200102)16:2<215::AID-INT50>3.0.CO
[3]  
2-#
[4]   The origin of bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics [J].
Barabási, AL .
NATURE, 2005, 435 (7039) :207-211
[5]   Predictability of web-server traffic congestion* [J].
Baryshnikov, Y ;
Coffman, E ;
Pierre, G ;
Rubenstein, D ;
Squillante, M ;
Yimwadsana, T .
WCW 2005: 10th International Workshop on Web Content Caching and Distribution, Proceedings, 2005, :97-103
[6]  
Box G.E. P., 1994, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting Control, V3rd
[7]  
DEWES C, 2003, IMC 03, P51
[8]   Dynamics of information access on the web [J].
Dezso, Z. ;
Almaas, E. ;
Lukacs, A. ;
Racz, B. ;
Szakadat, I. ;
Barabasi, A. -L. .
PHYSICAL REVIEW E, 2006, 73 (06)
[9]  
DUARTE F, 2007, P 1 INT C WEBL SOC M
[10]   Bayesian inference from type II doubly censored Rayleigh data [J].
Fernández, AJ .
STATISTICS & PROBABILITY LETTERS, 2000, 48 (04) :393-399
123