There are many well documented behavioral biases in financial markets. Yet, analyzing U.S. equities reveals that less than 1% of returns are predictable in recent years. Given the high number of biases, why are returns not more predictable? We provide new evidence in support of one possible explanation. In the long-run, low correlations across signals that trigger biases may create sufficient antinoise which mutes more sizable patterns in returns. However, in the short-run, correlation spikes coincide with market volatility indicating that behavioral biases may become more visible during crises.
机构:
Calif State Univ San Bernardino, Coll Business & Publ Adm, Dept Accounting & Finance, 5500 Univ Pkwy, San Bernardino, CA 92407 USACalif State Univ San Bernardino, Coll Business & Publ Adm, Dept Accounting & Finance, 5500 Univ Pkwy, San Bernardino, CA 92407 USA
机构:
Calif State Univ San Bernardino, Coll Business & Publ Adm, Dept Accounting & Finance, San Bernardino, CA 92407 USACalif State Univ San Bernardino, Coll Business & Publ Adm, Dept Accounting & Finance, San Bernardino, CA 92407 USA
Sarwar, Ghulam
NORTH AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE,
2020,
52