Roadmapping disruptive technical threats and opportunities in complex, technology-based subsystems: The SAILS methodology

A heuristic methodology, based on observations of past patterns of change across several complex, technology-based, subsystem-level industries, is presented for the identification of potentially disruptive technologies. This methodology can be used to both guide the intuition of the senior technical visionary and aid in the formation of the intuition of more junior technologists as they develop the insight required to predict the future of technology. The five components of this methodology are recurring contributors to disruption at the subsystem level of the value chain: standards, architectures, integration, linkages, and substitutions (SAILS). The SAILS methodology is elucidated by applying it, both retrospectively and prospectively, to three complex, technology-based, subsystem-level examples: frequency generation subsystems in wireless communication super-systems; optical multiplexing subsystems in optical communication supersystems; and high voltage electrical subsystems in automotive supersystems. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.