INTERRUPTED TIME SERIES ANALYSIS USING SEGMENTED REGRESSION OF PREMATURE MORTALITY FROM NONCOMMUNICABLE DISEASE AMONG FILIPINOS

The problem of increasing mortality from noncommunicable disease (NCD) in the Philippines warrants an in-depth assessment of the potential impact of NCD interventions by the national government. This research aims to compare trends before and after a critical milestone in the prevention and control of these lifestyle-related diseases, the release of the manual of operations on Prevention and Control of Chronic Lifestyle-Related Noncommunicable Diseases in the Philippines in 2010. Interrupted time series analysis with segmented regression was performed on secondary ecologic data extracted from the national mortality database maintained by the Philippine Statistics Authority-National Statistics Office. The prevention of deaths among 30-69 year-old adults secondary to the intervention was notable only for cardiovascular diseases. The intervention had minimal effect in deterring premature mortality from cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus. This application of interrupted time series analysis with segmented regression provides pragmatic evidence as to the impact of one of the landmark national strategies on NCD prevention and control.