The uncertain future of the Norway lobster fisheries in the North Sea calls for new management strategies

Nephrops (Nephrops norvegicus) is an economically valuable target species in the North Sea. Although individual Nephrops populations are scattered, the crustacean is managed regionally by the European Union (EU). The spatial competition for fisheries in the North Sea is growing especially due to expanding offshore wind farms (OWF) and newly implemented marine protected areas (MPA). Moreover, the Brexit affects the availability of EU fishing quotas and adds to the overall uncertainty EU fishers face. We compare landings and catches to scientifically advised quantities and perform an overlap analysis of fishing grounds with current and future OWFs and MPAs. Furthermore, we explore the German Nephrops fleet using high-resolution spatial fishing effort and catch data. Our results confirm earlier studies showing that Nephrops stocks have been fished above scientific advice. PresentOWFs and MPAs marginally overlap with Nephrops fishing grounds, whereas German fishing grounds are covered up to 45% in future scenarios. Co-use strategies with OWFs could mitigate the loss of fishing opportunities. Decreased cod quotas due to Brexit and worse stock conditions, lowers Germany's capability to swap Nephrops quotas with the UK. We support the call for a new management strategy of individual Nephrops populations and the promotion of selective fishing gears.