PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EU POST-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES

被引：0

作者：

Dinca, Gheorghita ^{[1
]}

Dinca, Marius Sorin ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Transilvania Univ Brasov, Dept Finance & Accounting, Brasov, Romania

来源：

ROMANIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING | 2015年 / 18卷 / 02期

关键词：

public debt; economic growth; fiscal policy; returning point; sustainability of public finance; DEFICITS; BONDS;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Our paper empirically explores the relationship between the ratio of government debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the per capita GDP growth rate for a sample of 10 former Communist countries, currently members of the EU 27, for the 1999-2010 period. The results show a statistically significant non-linear relationship between the government debt to GDP ratio and the per capita GDP growth rate for all the analyzed countries. We have found that the government debt turning point is around 50%. If the government debt to GDP ratio exceeds this level, it could generate a negative impact on the GDP growth rate. The 95% confidence intervals for the debt turning point start as low as 40% of GDP, which calls for more prudent government debt policies.

引用

页码：119 / 132

页数：14

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