On the seismogenic process of the 25 April 2015 Mw 7. 8 earthquake and future earthquake situation

In this study, we divided the Islamabad-Kathmandu seismic zone based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and principles for dividing interplate seismogenic zones. Furthermore, we analyzed the seismogenic process of the large or great earthquake events in the zone from the angles of the definition of seismogenic period and the recognition of the main shock event, and forecasted the future earthquake situation. The results showed that the Islamabad-Kathmandu seismic zone has undergone at least three complete seismogenic periods and it is a dangerous seismic zone with M(w)8. 3 similar to 8. 6 earthquake. The Nepal M(w)7. 8 earthquake on 25 April 2015 is a symbolic major earthquake event by the time the damage of the third locked patch is accumulated to the peak stress in the current seismogenic period. After the M(w)7. 3 earthquake on 12 May 2015, it has been at the critical state again for this seismic zone and a M(w)8. 0 similar to 8. 2 earthquake will occur.