Eliciting Truthful Answers to Multiple-Choice Questions Preliminary Report

被引:0
|
作者
Lambert, Nicolas [1 ]
Shoham, Yoav [1 ]
机构
[1] Stanford Univ, Dept Comp Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
关键词
Multiple-choice questions; elicitation; probability; forecasting;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
TP39 [计算机的应用];
学科分类号
081203 ; 0835 ;
摘要
Motivated by the prevalence of online questionnaires in electronic commerce, and of multiple-choice questions in such questionnaires, we consider the problem of eliciting truthful answers to multiple-choice questions from a knowledgeable respondent. Specifically, each question is a statement regarding an uncertain future event, and is multiple-choice - the responder must select exactly one of the given answers. The principal offers a payment, whose amount is a function of the answer selected and the true outcome (which the principal will eventually observe). Tins problem significantly generalizes recent work on truthful elicitation of distribution properties, which itself generalized a long line of work in elicitation of complete distributions. We provide necessary and sufficient; conditions for the existence of payments that induce truthful answers, and give a characterization of those payments. We also study in greater details the common case of questions with ordinal answers, and illustrate our results with several examples of practical interest.
引用
收藏
页码:109 / 118
页数:10
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