A Forecasting Ionospheric Real-time Scintillation Tool (FIRST)

Transionospheric radio waves propagating through an irregular ionosphere with plasma depletions, or "bubbles," are subject to sporadic enhancement and fading commonly referred to as scintillation. Knowledge of the current ionospheric condition allows system operators to distinguish between compromises due to the radio environment and system induced failures, while a forecast of the same provides the opportunity for operators to take appropriate actions to mitigate the effects and optimize service. This paper describes a technique that uses the readily accessible ionospheric characteristic h'F from ground-based ionospheric sounder data near the geomagnetic equator to forecast the occurrence or nonoccurrence of low-latitude scintillation activity in VHF/UHF bands. We illustrate the development of the Forecasting Ionospheric Real-time Scintillation Tool and its real-time capability for forecasting scintillation activity. Finally, we have found that there exists a threshold in the h'F value at 1930 LT that corresponds to the onset of scintillation activity in the Peruvian longitude sector, which is found to decrease with decreasing F10.7 cm fluxes in a linear manner.