Study on highway investment decision under uncertainty with Shackle model

Shackle model is used to study highway investment decision under uncertainty. In Shackle model, the uncertainty associated with possible outcomes for project benefit analysis is measured by degree of surprise, and a priority index for performance evaluation of each possible outcome and degree of surprise pair is proposed, thus, the standardized focus gain value and focus loss value from the expected outcome can be established. The standardized focus gain-over-loss ratios corresponding to multiple performance measures are synthesized into an overall ratio as the overall benefits, and then the proposed problem can be built as a multi-choice multi-dimensional knapsack problem which could be solved.