Research on Shanxi's CO2 Emissions Peak Based on STIRPAT Model

The global greenhouse gas emissions peak has become a sensitive issue in the area of international climate governance. It is of great significance to study Shanxi's CO2 emissions peak which affects China's CO2 emissions peak target achieve by 2030 or earlier. Based on the brief analysis of the status quo of the social economy and the carbon emissions in Shanxi, this paper firstly makes the regression for the data of the carbon emissions, population, GDP per capita and carbon intensity from 2005 to 2014 based on STIRPAT model. Then, we set up 8 scenarios to estimate the peak time and peak amount of Shanxi's CO2 emissions. If the rate of decline in carbon intensity is relatively faster than the rate of growth in per capita GDP, Shanxi's CO2 emissions peak around 2030. Otherwise, it wound not peak before 2040. In order to peak earlier, Shanxi should focus on improving energy saving technology and increasing the use of clean energy.