The impact of flooding on marriage: evidence from Pakistan

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of the flood on marriages in flooded households compared to marriages in unaffected households by utilizing the 2010 Pakistani flood as a type of natural experiment. Design/methodology/approach - A difference-in-difference approach is used to estimate the effect of the flood on marriages in 62 flooded districts compared with those in 53 non-flooded districts by utilizing the six waves of the household level surveys data from the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement, 2004-2005 to 2014-2015. Findings - Results show that the flood decreased marriages; by 17 marriages per 1,000 individuals aged 15-50 years in flooded districts during the flood year and the effect disappeared after the flood year. The negative impact of the flood on rural marriages is significantly higher and robust. Social implications - The flood seemingly discouraged individuals in flooded districts to be engaged in long term relationship mainly due to the flood related economic and financial losses. In order to acquire and maintain individual overall well-being, sexual health in vital to maintain mental and physical health, so policy makers/humanitarian aid-providers should assist the affected adults financially or by arranging their marriages at least during the flood year. The study also suggests that the delay of marriages means the accumulation of human capital in the form of school attainment of male marriages, so younger adult should be discouraged marrying at early age. Originality/value - This study contributes to the literature in the following ways: first, the study empirically investigates the impact of flood - both immediate and long term - on marriage rates by using a natural experiment. Second, it examines the relationship based on geographic location and gender. Third, it investigates the impact of natural hazards on child marriage.