Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Determinants of Inter-Provincial Migration in China 1995-2015

Inter-provincial migration causes dramatic changes in the population, as well as in the development of the social economy at both origin and destination, which is related to sustainable development in any country. Using inter-provincial migration data during the periods covering 1995-2000, 2000-2005, 2005-2010, and 2010-2015, we analyze the migration volume, intensity and flow, as well as its changes over time. We also examine the determinants associated with migration by applying Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimation techniques. The results show that migrants move mainly from inland to coastal areas; however, since 2010, the number of migrants moving from coastal to inland areas has shown a continuous increase. This inter-provincial migration was driven largely by the influence of economic factors, such as high urban income per capita. A better model for the period of 2010-2015 is established by adopting an extended set of variables. New variables that represent regional disparities and industrial upgrades have a positive impact on inter-provincial migration, which shows that regional economic disparities and economic restructuring have played an important role in migration in recent years.