An econometric model of world silk production, 1870-1914

Thr paper presents and estimates an econometric model of world silk production from 1870 to 1913, which takes into account the world demand and the supply of the three main exporters-Italy, China, and Japan. The demand curve increased as much as the income of the ''core'' countries did, and the performance of the producing countries was on the whole pretty good. Their supply increased as much as the demand, keeping real prices of silk stable while world trade trebled. Productivity increased in all three countries, but Japan ranked first by far, Italy second, and China trailed well behind the other two. These different performances account for the long-run changes in the respective market shares. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc.