A study on the Risk Evaluation and Regionalization of Maize Drought Disaster on CERES-Maize Model in Western Jilin Province

could provide the basis for agricultural drought disaster risk and emergency response and recovery capability. The quantitative assessment was based on the concept of the risk (R) = hazard (H) x Vulnerability (V) by ISDR, and based on the theory of natural disaster risk and the definition of vulnerability by climate change, and established the drought disaster risk assessment model. Three typical drought years (2004, 2006 and 2007) in western Jilin province were used to calculate the drought disaster risk assessment model by using CERES-Maize model. We used the CERES-Maize model to simulate the growth of maize for every day and every grid. The maize drought disaster risk indexes of drought were divided into 4 grades and we draught the maize drought disaster zone maps by GIS technology. The results showed that the areas with high drought risk were Baicheng, Taonan and Zhenlai, etc. The low drought risk areas were Songyuan and Fuyu, etc. Regression analysis of maize risk indexes to drought in the three typical drought years of each growth period and maize yield loss was also conducted. The analysis showed a basic agreement among the factors for F test of significant at alpha=0.05 of different growing stages. This indicated that it was reasonable to evaluate and predict the maize vulnerability to drought using the established model in the region. This study