Reference groups, opinion intensity, and public opinion expression

Noelle-Neumann's work on the spiral of silence (1974, 1977, 1984) has been one of the most significant theoretical developments in public opinion research of the past quarter-century. The theory is well known among public pinion researchers, and a number of research efforts have been directed toward examining specific parts of the theory. However, the theory is difficult to test, incorporating psychological, social-psychological and sociological variables, including psychological variables and sweeping changes in the social climate of opinion (cf. Noelle-Neumann 1984). This study investigated the role of opinion thresholds, social groups and weighing of others' opinions in opinion expression. Using Krassa's (1988) computer simulation and modification of Noelle-Neumann's (1974) spiral of silence as a base, we test several theoretical modifications to the spiral of silence model using data gathered from people living in or near six national parks in Canada. Primary interest is on the ability of opinion thresholds, social groups and weighing of others' opinions to predict the expression of opinion for particular issues.