Spatial-temporal evolution pattern and prediction analysis of flood disasters in China in recent 500 years

Since the Ming Dynasty, the flood disaster has been one of the important natural disasters affecting our country. However, relatively few studies on the evolution law of flood disaster at large spatial-temporal scales have been reported. Based on the datasets of flood stations from 1470 to 2000, this paper quantitatively analyzes and discusses the spatial and temporal evolution pattrens of floods in China in the past 500 years by using regional gravity center model, wavelet analysis, Daniel index, and M-K test, and predicts the trend of flood disasters in the future. The results show that: (1) Since 1470, there has been an increasing trend of flood intensity index in China;(2) From 1470 to 2000, there were two high centers of flood disaster in 1560 and 1925, respectively, and one low center appeared in 1745; (3) Flood risk changes from easy occurrence in the eastern coastal area to uniform spatial distribution over the whole study region; (4) In the past 500 years, the graver center of flood disaster is located in Baokang County, Hubei Province, and the gravity center of flood disaster shows a trend of moving to northwest both at time scales of 50-year and 100 year; (5) The flood disaster in the studied area will still show an overall upward trend in the future.The research can provide decision support for the precise prevention and control of flood disasters in China.