An empirical study on relationship between population immigration and urban housing market

Since the natural growth rate of Chinese urban population is under effective control, migration has become the major cause of the changes of urban population. Population immigration would largely increase the demand of housing; meanwhile high housing price would also restrain immigration. At present population migration in China mainly falls into the spontaneous migration, and the first motivation of migration is to increase income. According to academic study, transferred-in population has a strong demand of housing and considerable purchase power. The absorption rate of transferred population by housing stock is relatively low, which means their demand of housing is generally satisfied by the increment market. According to empirical study, in short run, change of housing increment is largely decided by the volume of migration and housing completion of the previous year, which shows the lag of demand impact and the inertia of housing construction; from a long-term equilibrium perspective, housing completion and volume of immigration presents a positive correlation, and presently population migration affects the housing increment market mostly in the form of short-term fluctuations. On the other hand, living cost and the quality of life are the major consideration for people when make decisions of migration, and presently housing price is the chief cost for urban residents. Quantitative analysis of the impact factors of migration on a database of 35 major cities reveals that population immigration is not significantly restrained by housing price. The result of this research would theoretically be helpful for understanding the relationship between population immigration and housing market, and practically helpful for local governments to make population and housing policy which assorts with urban development.