GLOBAL TRADE DISRUPTED

January 2019 marked the halfway point of the Trump administration, a presidency that has been embroiled with disruption and a break from traditional US trade policy. Under Trump's leadership, the United States has pulled out of the Transpacific Partnership (TPP), threatened to leave the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), started a trade war with China, and imposed tariffs on traditional allies on the grounds of national security considerations. 2019 will be a pivotal year for global trade in which uncertainty surrounding a few key trade developments in the first half will determine the extent to which the global trading system will be interrupted for the remainder of the year and the years to come.