How Do Spanish Independents Vote? Ideology vs. Performance

We claim that independent voters use performance as their main heuristic: if the incumbent fares well, independents reward it; if it fares poorly, they switch to the main opposition party. To make the switch easier, independents place themselves in the centre of the ideological dimension. Using Spanish data, our results confirm that independents rely more on performance than partisan voters, net of ideological proximity. Two implications also hold: voters ideologically equidistant between the Partido Socialista Obrero Espanol and Partido Popular are overwhelmingly independents, valuing the incumbent's performance more than non-equidistant voters; and independents rarely switch to smaller parties when the incumbent's performance is bad.