Sparse moving maxima models for tail dependence in multivariate financial time series

The multivariate maxima of moving maxima (M4) model has the potential to model both the cross-sectional and temporal tail-dependence for a rich class of multivariate time series. The main difficulty of applying M4 model to real data is due to the estimation of a large number of parameters in the model and the intractability of its joint likelihood. In this paper, we consider a sparse M4 random coefficient model (SM4R), which has a parsimonious number of parameters and it can potentially capture the major stylized facts exhibited by devolatized asset returns found in empirical studies. We study the probabilistic properties of the newly proposed model. Statistical inference can be made based on the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach. We also demonstrate through real data analysis that the SM4R model can be effectively used to improve the estimates of the Value-at-Risk (VaR) for portfolios consisting of multivariate financial returns while ignoring either temporal or cross-sectional tail dependence could potentially result in serious underestimate of market risk. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.